Fidelity’s Timmer: Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Intact, 2026 May Be Slower

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, has reaffirmed his view that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle is still playing out as expected. Despite recent debate among analysts, Timmer anticipates a quieter period for Bitcoin in 2026 after the cryptocurrency’s latest bull run.

What happened

While some market commentators have questioned whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains relevant, Timmer argues that recent price movements align closely with previous cycles. The cycle, tied to Bitcoin’s halving events, typically sees a strong rally followed by a significant correction and a period of consolidation.

Bitcoin’s most recent surge peaked in October 2025, when the price exceeded $125,000. According to Timmer, this peak and the subsequent downturn are consistent with patterns observed after previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020.

Timmer suggests that the current bearish trend could persist well into 2026, marking a typical “off year” for Bitcoin as the market consolidates before the next cycle begins.

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Why it matters

The debate over Bitcoin’s cyclical behaviour is significant for both institutional and retail participants, especially as the asset becomes more integrated into traditional finance. Timmer’s perspective, coming from a major global asset manager, may influence how European investors and policymakers view the digital asset’s long-term stability.

With the EU continuing to develop its regulatory approach to crypto assets, understanding the persistence of such cycles could inform future policy decisions and risk assessments.

Key details

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is linked to its halving events, which reduce mining rewards by 50%.
Previous cycles saw a major price rally, a sharp correction, and a gradual recovery.
The 2024 halving preceded a rally that peaked in October 2025 above $125,000.
Timmer expects the current bear phase to last into 2026, calling it a likely “off year.”
He sees support for Bitcoin in the $65,000–$75,000 range during this period.
Other analysts have argued that institutional adoption and ETFs could disrupt the cycle, but Timmer disagrees.

What to watch next

Market participants will be monitoring whether Bitcoin’s price action continues to mirror previous cycles or if new factors, such as increased institutional involvement and regulation, alter its trajectory. The outcome could shape sentiment and strategies in both the EU and global markets.

EU regulators and investors may also look to this period as a case study for the resilience of crypto market patterns amid growing mainstream adoption. The next halving, expected in 2028, will be a key milestone for confirming or challenging the cycle’s relevance.